Muskogee, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXUS64 KTSA 250512
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

  - Unsettled weather through the remainder of the week and into
    the weekend, with daily thunderstorm chances across the
    region.

  - Limited severe weather potential will last through the weekend
    with locally heavy rainfall potential Thursday/Friday.

  - More defined low pressure system moves into the Plains with
    additional thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A cluster of severe storms over NW OK, one of which a supercell
that has produced very large hail and tornadoes, is forecast to
evolve by the latest HRRR into a small MCS tracking southeast
overnight into northeast Oklahoma. Instability is weaker across
eastern Oklahoma, and indeed the HRRR has been consistent with the
signal that any MCS that gets going is expected to be on a
weakening trend as it treks into the forecast area. Nevertheless,
PoPs/thunder/severe probs have been updated to show a limited
severe risk with locally damaging wind the main threat.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

This morning`s MCS that pushed across southern/central/southeast
OK continues to decay, but is still producing scattered showers
and a few rumbles of thunder across eastern OK early this
afternoon. Hi-res, short-range models continue to indicate some
destabilization along residual outflow boundaries later this
afternoon and into this evening, mainly across northeast OK and
northwest AR, but the thick cloud cover across the region has
really complicated how much destabilization will actually occur.
Will maintain low-moderate (20-40%) PoPs through the early
evening hours.

Forecast uncertainty continues through the late evening and
overnight hours tonight with some significant differences in hi-
res and global model data. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast
to move across KS late tonight. It`s exact orientation and track
as well as overall atmospheric stability will determine rainfall
chances through the remainder of the short term period. A surface
cold front will slowly push southward and into far northern OK by
daybreak Friday. ECMWF and the NAM 3km solutions seem to be the
outliers in the global models, bringing in a northwest-to-
southeast advancing MCS-type event, originating near the frontal
boundary in KS, across eastern OK overnight tonight. With high
uncertainty, went ahead and ran with NBM PoPs for now, but these
PoPs will likely need to be adjusted through the evening and
night. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night is in store, with
overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s and light
southerly winds.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the forecast area from
the northwest mid-late morning Friday. The front will likely slow
down and perhaps stall across southeast OK by Friday evening, then
diffusing/eroding during the daytime Saturday. Despite mid-level
ridging build overhead, the presence of the surface front and
subtle perturbations in the ridge will keep shower and
thunderstorms chances in the forecast through at least Saturday.
Severe storm chances will be highly limited, if at all, and mostly
confined near the front due to weak-modest shear availability.

A wet pattern will likely continue through the daytime on Sunday
as modest to strong warm air advection occurs as a warm front
pushes through the forecast area. Weak flow aloft will continue to
greatly limit severe storm potential.

Stronger upper-level southwest flow remains on track to occur
during the early-mid part of next week as a more potent upper-
level low moves from the Great Basin region and over the Plains
Monday/Tuesday. This storm system will be accompanied by another
surface frontal system that will be moving into the area Tuesday
into Wednesday. Severe thunderstorm chances will be increasing
ahead of the front possibly as early as Monday night, continuing
into Tuesday and into Wednesday as the front is forecast to stall
across the forecast area. The main forcing still looks to remain
north of the TSA CWA, where the upper-level low will track, but
storms ahead and along the cold front will be capable of producing
strong to severe storms. More details to come later. The
unsettled weather is expected to resume into next Thursday as
well.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Immediate concerns aviation-wise are potential for thunderstorm
impacts in the next 1 to 4 hours at the NE OK terminals and fog
that has developed across parts of W AR. An ongoing MCS near I-35
should continue to move into NE OK early this morning, albeit
diminishing intensity given lower instability this far east.
TUL/RVS will be most likely to see wind making it to the surface
and will include a VRB wind mention with 25kt gusts in TEMPO
groups for these two sites, along with IFR conditions. BVO will
also contain a TEMPO group with IFR conditions but given the track
of the system, will leave the wind group out. The MCS will likely
be gone before reaching either MLC or the W AR sites. Patchy fog
has developed in the past 1 to 2 hours near and east of the OK/AR
border, with FYV seeing dense fog at present. FYV and FSM are the
only sites currently with significant visibility reductions, but
expect some potential for IFR visibilities XNA/ROG also toward
daybreak. Some increase in shower and maybe, thunderstorm
potential will develop after daybreak at the NW AR sites, with
potential for IFR visibilities in showers during this time frame.
An upward trend in ceilings remains likely for all sites midday
into early afternoon. Potential for additional shower and
thunderstorm impacts at the E OK sites will increase just after
this valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  72  61  79 /  40  60  50  60
FSM   65  79  62  81 /  30  60  40  30
MLC   62  77  62  81 /  50  80  30  30
BVO   55  70  58  77 /  40  50  50  60
FYV   58  75  57  78 /  30  50  40  50
BYV   59  70  57  75 /  20  40  30  50
MKO   60  73  60  77 /  40  70  40  40
MIO   57  70  59  76 /  20  40  50  70
F10   61  72  61  79 /  50  80  40  40
HHW   64  78  63  80 /  30  70  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22